New forecasts from Omdia predict a continuous rise in global retail-music sales, with growth this year marking the tenth consecutive annual increase. By the end of the forecast period, the number of years of growth will equal the total of annual declines seen in the early 2000s. Global sales are expected to reach $43.9bn by the end of 2024, surpass the $50bn mark in 2027, and reach $53.4bn by 2028. Omdia’s figures include consumer spending on physical and digital formats and services as well as trade revenue from advertising, performance rights, and synchronization. Subscriptions, including platforms like Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube Music are projected to drive much of this growth increasing 10.4% this year, to $26.8bn from $24.3bn in 2023. Subscription revenue is expected to exceed $34.4bn by 2028 with a forecasted CAGR of 7.2% over the period.
Advertising is set to grow faster than physical sales over the next five years (5.7% CAGR versus 2%), but physical sales will remain the second biggest recorded-music revenue source. Although growth is forecast for the next five years, the rate of annual rises will slow, to just 0.2% in 2028 when physical sales will be worth $7.3bn. Combined audio and video advertising will rise 8.1% this year to $5.3bn from $4.9bn in 2023, reaching $6.5bn by 2028.
Omdia is expecting China’s ascent in the global rankings over the next five years driven by a significantly higher CAGR compared to Europe’s two leading markets: the UK and Germany. China is expected to surpass Germany by 2026 and the UK by 2027. Although Japan will remain Asia’s leader and the world’s second largest recorded-music market by the end of 2028, it is projected to be overtaken by China, as early as 2029. Omdia forecasts that China’s retail sales will go beyond $2bn this year, increasing by 22.1%, to $2.4bn from $1.97bn in 2023. Sales are expected to reach $3bn in 2026 and $4bn in 2028.
“Music companies should be buoyed with the latest figures from Omdia numbers” according to Simon Dyson, Senior Principal Analyst at Omdia. “Global retail sales will have risen for 14 consecutive years by the end of 2028. Each year will mark a new record with previously piracy-affected countries now contributing to recorded-music revenue. China is the one to watch as sales in the country are expected to more than double in just five years,” Dyson added.
